Med-TSO has released its new report “Mid-Term Adequacy Assessment – Horizon 2027 & 2030”, providing an in-depth analysis of the expected adequacy situation among non-EU members of the Association for the coming years.
The report evaluates the capacity of the Mediterranean power systems to meet future electricity demand under both isolated and interconnected operating conditions. Using a probabilistic approach, it captures the variability of renewable energy sources and the growing importance of flexibility in modern power systems.
Focusing on five Med-TSO members—Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan—the study identifies potential adequacy issues and highlights how cross-border interconnections can significantly enhance system reliability. Results show that while isolated systems may face localized adequacy risks, regional interconnections substantially reduce the likelihood of loss-of-load events and Expected Energy Not Served (EENS), particularly by 2030.
A major innovation in this edition is the adoption of the new Pan-European Climate Database (PECD) v4.2 dataset, developed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This allows Med-TSO to model electricity demand, renewable generation, and cross-border exchanges with hourly precision under multiple climate scenarios, offering a more realistic and forward-looking view of adequacy risks, which will help and optimise planning and operation of the interconnected grids.
Mid-Term Adequacy Assessments are fundamental studies designed to forecast whether the electrical grid can sustain demand from homes, businesses, and industry, over the next five to seven years. This timeframe is precisely calibrated to allow for the strategic deployment of medium-scale power solutions such as solar and wind farms, battery storage, or necessary upgrades to transmission infrastructure, thereby preempting future supply crises.
As well as the Seasonal Adequacy Assessments, this study aligns Med-TSO’s work with EU best practices and regulatory developments, marking a key step in strengthening regional reliability assessments.
By advancing the methodology and fostering cooperation among Mediterranean TSOs, this report reinforces Med-TSO’s commitment to ensuring a reliable, interconnected, and sustainable regional power system.
Download the full report here or read it now.
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