Med-TSO has just released its Seasonal Adequacy Assessment – Winter Outlook 2025/2026, offering an updated overview of electricity adequacy across six Mediterranean countries not member of ENTSO-E: Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon.
The report analyses the region’s capacity to meet winter electricity demand under both isolated and interconnected operation modes, from November 2025 to April 2026.
The findings confirm the crucial role of interconnections in enhancing regional reliability:
- In isolated operation mode, Lebanon and Libya face severe adequacy challenges, while Jordan shows a low adequacy risk. Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt maintain stable and reliable systems.
- In interconnected operation mode, Jordan continues to demonstrate high reliability supported by its link with Egypt, while Lebanon (under a hypothetical interconnection scenario) and Libya (through exchanges with Egypt and Tunisia) show notable improvement—though not enough to fully overcome their adequacy challenges.
As in the Mid-Term Adequacy Assessment – Horizon 2027 & 2030, just published, this study integrates the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD) v4.2 dataset, developed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The inclusion of long-term climate projections (2015–2100) alongside historical data allows for more robust simulations of electricity demand, renewable output, and power flows under changing climate conditions.
The Winter Outlook 2025/2026 reinforces the value of regional cooperation and interconnected systems in securing electricity supply and mitigating adequacy risks.
To explore the findings in greater detail and present the methodology behind the study, Med-TSO will host the followiong public webinar:
Assessing Power System Resilience: Mid-Term Adequacy, Winter Outlook & Flexibility Needs
📅 24 November 2025, from 9:30 to 11:30 CET 💻 Online
👉 Register here
Download the full report here or read it now.
Med-TSO-Mediterranean-Adequacy-Assessment_Winter-25-26